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Weather instruments, satellites, weather balloons, and computer models are all used to create weather forecasts, but the atmosphere is so large and complicated that even the best forecasts aren't always accurate.

Topics and Connections:

• Making predictions
• Statistics
• Comparing and judging a 'best' with multiple criteria

Materials:

• paper for recording (and possibly graphing) results

Directions:

Teacher:

• Assign students to follow weather forecasts on different television channels, newspapers, and/or radio stations.

Students:

• Record, each day for a week, what your weather information source predicted the next day's high temperature, low temperature, wind, and precipitation would be. The next day, record the actual values, either from newspaper or TV records or by using weather instruments.
• After the week is over, compare the various predictions with the actual weather on that day. Make a table showing the predicted and actual weather information.
• Discuss your findings:
  –Did every source make the same prediction?
  –Did the media source say what source their information came from?
  –Were some kinds of weather information easier for every source to predict?
  –How would you decide which was the 'best' source of information?

Follow up:

Students:

• Record the forecasted high temperature, low temperature, wind, and precipitation for two, three, and four days in advance, to see how far in advance the different sources' forecasts are accurate.
• Analyze the data you've collected, to see if different sources were consistently high or low in their predictions, or how close they were each day.
• Graph the results of your research.
• Cut out weather maps from the newspaper for the days investigated, and interpret them based on what the actual high, low, wind, and precipitation was for those days.
• Make your own forecast, either using readings taken from your own weather instruments, weathermaps from the newspaper, or based on the forecasts of other sources.

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