NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 3 hours 29 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200529
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this
system is possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive after that time. This low should
move generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 7:10pm

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 20:33:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 21:05:45 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:32pm
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192031 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but tight swirl of low-level clouds. Since the cyclone has been absent any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time. A blend of the 1800 UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass. Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear. Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it merges with a front. Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward speed or 090/06. Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure during the next 24 hours. The track should then bend southeastward and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 39.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0600Z 39.4N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/1800Z 39.0N 33.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 38.0N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.3N 30.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:31pm
...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.5, -37.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:31pm
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 ...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:31pm
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 192031 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:30pm
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192030 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 37.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..260NE 300SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 37.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.4N 36.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N 33.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 37.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 3:52am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
broad area of low pressure centered between west Africa and the
Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible
over the next few days before upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive by early next week. This low is expected to
move slowly west-northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off of the
east coast of Florida over the weekend. This system has some
potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while
it moves northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 1:10am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 02:37:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 03:05:44 GMT

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 31

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 12:36am
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190236 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 Edouard has not changed much during the past several hours. Microwave images indicate that the low-level center is located on the western side of the main area of deep convection due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. Despite being in a strong shear environment and over cool waters, an ASCAT pass just before 0000 UTC indicated that Edouard has not weakened significantly. Maximum reliable winds seen in the ASCAT data are in the 55 to 60 kt range, and dropsonde wind reports from the NASA Global Hawk suggest a similar intensity. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is expected to remain in hostile conditions, therefore, steady weakening is anticipated and Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical in about 24 hours. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone degenerating into a trough by 96 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that Edouard is moving eastward at about 15 kt on the north side of a subtropical high. A continued eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on the ASCAT pass and the NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 39.9N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 39.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0000Z 39.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 22/0000Z 36.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 12:35am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 190235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 25(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 12:35am
...EDOUARD STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 18 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.9, -39.2 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 31

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 12:35am
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 ...EDOUARD STILL A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 39.2W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 31

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 12:34am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 39.2W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 180SE 180SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 300SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 39.2W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 40.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 130SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 39.9N 36.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 31.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 18, 2014 - 3:27am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180526
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 1000 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the far
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 18, 2014 - 1:10am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 02:35:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 03:05:45 GMT

Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 27

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 18, 2014 - 12:34am
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180234 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over cool waters. Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in the inner-core region has increased a little during the past few hours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Although the hurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the expected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Post-tropical transition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is forecast to be over waters around 23 C. The hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong mid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial motion estimated to be 060/26. A turn to the east and then southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow between a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low to its northeast. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 38.7N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 40.2N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 40.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0000Z 39.4N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0000Z 37.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 18, 2014 - 12:34am
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 180234 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 18, 2014 - 12:33am
...EDOUARD CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of EDOUARD was located near 38.7, -48.2 with movement ENE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 27

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 18, 2014 - 12:33am
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 ...EDOUARD CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 48.2W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H. A TURN TO THE EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI