NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 11 hours 47 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300519
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located just to the northwest of Bermuda is
producing a few showers and thunderstorms while it moves slowly
northward. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated due to increasingly strong upper-level winds. The low
should move northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed over the next couple of days, and could still
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda this
morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 11 hours 47 min ago
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 30 Sep 2014 05:40:48 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 29, 2014 - 3:27am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290527
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing showers
and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a little better
organized over the past several hours, upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while the
low moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days. Regardless of development, this system will produce
locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda for the next
day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 28, 2014 - 3:36am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280536
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 27, 2014 - 3:31am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 26, 2014 - 3:31am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated low pressure area located about 1100 miles east of
the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not conducive
for development, and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely while
the low drifts northward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 25, 2014 - 3:12am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250512
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure area located about 1100 miles east of the
Windward Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are not conducive for development and tropical
cyclone formation is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 24, 2014 - 3:09am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240508
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 23, 2014 - 3:17am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230517
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 22, 2014 - 3:31am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 21, 2014 - 3:02am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210502
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation is not likely. However,
the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could bring
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 20, 2014 - 3:29am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200529
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this
system is possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive after that time. This low should
move generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 7:10pm

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 20:33:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 21:05:45 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:32pm
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192031 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but tight swirl of low-level clouds. Since the cyclone has been absent any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time. A blend of the 1800 UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass. Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear. Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it merges with a front. Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward speed or 090/06. Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure during the next 24 hours. The track should then bend southeastward and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 39.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0600Z 39.4N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/1800Z 39.0N 33.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 38.0N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.3N 30.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:31pm
...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.5, -37.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:31pm
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 ...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:31pm
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 192031 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN

Post-Tropical Cyclone EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 34

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 6:30pm
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192030 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 37.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..260NE 300SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 37.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.4N 36.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N 33.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 37.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/HUFFMAN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 3:52am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
western Azores.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
broad area of low pressure centered between west Africa and the
Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible
over the next few days before upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive by early next week. This low is expected to
move slowly west-northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off of the
east coast of Florida over the weekend. This system has some
potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while
it moves northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 19, 2014 - 1:10am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 02:37:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2014 03:05:44 GMT