NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Tropical Depression ANA Public Advisory Number 16

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 11, 2015 - 7:27pm
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

Tropical Depression ANA Public Advisory Number 13

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 11, 2015 - 2:39am
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2015

Tropical Storm ANA Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 10, 2015 - 4:00am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 06:00:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 May 2015 03:03:44 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 10, 2015 - 3:57am
...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun May 10 the center of ANA was located near 33.6, -78.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 9A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 10, 2015 - 3:57am
Issued at 200 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100556 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 200 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 ...ANA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 78.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina and Virginia should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located by NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 78.5 West. Ana is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Ana is expected to reach the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina later this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Ana moves over cooler waters close to the coast. A more rapid rate of weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, NOAA buoy 41013, located about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of Cape Fear North Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 10, 2015 - 12:48am
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100248 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 Satellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structure increased in organization during the late afternoon as banding increased over the northeastern portion of the circulation. However, during the past few hours, the cloud top temperatures have warmed and the convection has decreased in intensity. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the initial intensity remains at 50 kt, which is in best agreement with uncontaminated SFMR winds. Ana is still forecast to weaken slightly while it moves over cooler waters near the coast overnight. Additional weakening should occur once the center moves onshore Sunday morning. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern North America. Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that Ana is moving north- northwestward, or 320/04. The tropical cyclone should continue moving slowly north-northwestward tonight as a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Ana shifts eastward. A broad trough moving into the central and eastern U.S. during the next few days is expected to cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn northward on Sunday and then northeastward at a faster forward speed by Sunday night. The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 33.2N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 33.8N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 10, 2015 - 12:44am
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 100244 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 11(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 1( 2) 11(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 4 9(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 3( 6) 10(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 13 8(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 67 7(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) WILMINGTON NC 50 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 80 3(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MYRTLE BEACH 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 10, 2015 - 12:43am
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100243 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC SUN MAY 10 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 78.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 78.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.8N 78.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.7N 78.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.8N 75.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 78.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 9, 2015 - 3:05pm
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 9, 2015 - 4:00am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 06:00:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 03:03:44 GMT

Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 9, 2015 - 3:56am
...ANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat May 9 the center of ANA was located near 32.2, -77.5 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 5A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 9, 2015 - 3:56am
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090556 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 ...ANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 77.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and then back to the north at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is forecast through today. A gradual weakening trend is likely to begin within 24 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. During the past hour, the Frying Pan Shoals NOAA buoy measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure was 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 9, 2015 - 1:41am
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090341 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ana has intensified. The strongest winds were measured in a band well to the east and northeast of the center. The current intensity is set at 50 kt, a little below the highest SFMR winds which are believed to be slightly rain-inflated. The satellite presentation of Ana is still somewhat subtropical, with almost all of the deep convection in a band over the northern semicircle of the circulation. Moreover, observations from the Hurricane Hunters indicate a radius of maximum winds of no less than 50-60 n mi. Therefore Ana is still being designated as a subtropical cyclone at this time. However, there is some indication that deep convection is beginning to develop nearer to the center, and this is a sign that the transition to a tropical cyclone may occur not long from now. Center fixes from the aircraft show a general northward drift of 350/2. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous package. Over the next few days, the presistent blocking ridge to the north of Ana is forecast to break down and shift eastward as a broad mid-tropospheric trough moves into the U.S. Ohio Valley region. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Ana to turn northwestward and then northward at a slightly faster forward speed before crossing the coast in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond that time, the flow ahead of the trough should carry Ana or its remnants northeastward at a substantially faster forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also close to the latest multi-model consensus. Dynamical and statistical/dynamical intensity model guidance do not show much additional strengthening. In 24 hours or so, as Ana moves northwest of the Gulf Stream, it should encounter progressively cooler waters. This, along with the entrainment of drier air, should lead to weakening. The official wind speed forecast is fairly similar to the intensity model consensus. By 96 hours, the latest global model runs show the system degenerating into an open trough as Ana's post-tropical remnants merge with a large extratropical low over Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 32.1N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 32.4N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 33.6N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 34.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0000Z 37.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Subtropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 9, 2015 - 12:32am
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 090232 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 6(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 10(21) 3(24) 4(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 24 18(42) 7(49) 4(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 7(10) 4(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 33 21(54) 8(62) 2(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 14 15(29) 5(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 9, 2015 - 12:32am
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 090232 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC SAT MAY 09 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.4W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.4W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.4N 77.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 78.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.3N 78.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 77.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 8, 2015 - 3:54am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 05:54:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 04:08:44 GMT

Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - May 8, 2015 - 3:51am
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri May 8 the center of ANA was located near 31.5, -77.7 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.