NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 10 hours 47 min ago

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 05:50:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 03:03:47 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 10 hours 47 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 10 hours 47 min ago
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.4, -94.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 2A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 10 hours 47 min ago
Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020549 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 100 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS RE-LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM... MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BERG

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 2

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 14 hours 47 sec ago
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020236 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north, which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday, moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to inhibit significant intensification before landfall. None of the reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west- northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position. Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the mountains of eastern Mexico. The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 14 hours 1 min ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 FONT15 KNHC 020236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TAMPICO MX 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 2

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 14 hours 1 min ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 93.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 93.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 93.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 93.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 1, 2014 - 3:51am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

NOAA National Hurricane Center - September 1, 2014 - 3:51am
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 01 Sep 2014 06:09:10 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2014 - 3:46am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 30, 2014 - 3:02am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300501
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive over
the weekend, but land interaction will likely limit significant
development while the disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula
on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
some gradual development once the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 29, 2014 - 3:28am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290528
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,
Canada.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the east-central
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level
winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or two while the system moves across the central and
western Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could
become conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal
shower activity. Development, if any, of this system is expected to
be slow to occur during the next several days while it moves
westward near 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 29, 2014 - 1:09am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 02:55:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 03:04:46 GMT

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 22

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 29, 2014 - 12:54am
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290253 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding features. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause significant weakening as a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of its strength due to baroclinic forcing. Post-tropical Cristobal will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over the north Atlantic through Saturday. Beyond that time, the system is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and lose its identity. The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 40.2N 56.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 47.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 51.5N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 56.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE $$ Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 29, 2014 - 12:53am
...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT RACES TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 28 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 40.2, -56.6 with movement ENE at 46 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 22

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 29, 2014 - 12:53am
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 ...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT RACES TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 56.6W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...405 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 22

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 29, 2014 - 12:53am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290253 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 40 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 220SE 220SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 280SE 360SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.1N 49.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 220SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 47.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 220SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 56.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 200SW 160NW. 34 KT...220NE 270SE 250SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 29, 2014 - 12:53am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 290253 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 28, 2014 - 3:52am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280551
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak area of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remains limited.
Development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over
south Texas and northern Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located just west of the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with
little development during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions could become favorable for some development by early next
week in the western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 28, 2014 - 3:34am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 05:34:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Aug 2014 03:04:44 GMT