NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 6 hours 59 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The system is
expected to move eastward across northern Belize this morning and
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by this afternoon, and it has a
small chance of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a
cold front in two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 6 hours 59 min ago
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 24 Oct 2014 05:59:06 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 3:00am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Nine which has degenerated into a remnant low
over the Yucatan peninsula.

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
non-tropical low pressure area is developing over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The low is expected to move east-northeastward,
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is not
expected to due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to produce heavy rainfall and
locally gusty winds over western Cuba, the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 1:08am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 02:37:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 03:04:43 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:36am
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230236 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The system has not produced a significant area of organized deep convection since late this morning and it is therefore being declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration. The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and the multi-model consensus. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to this system. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 18.9N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE (AT4/AL092014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:36am
...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 18.9, -90.9 with movement ESE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Public Advisory Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:36am
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 90.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH ...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:36am
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 230236 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Advisory Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:35am
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230235 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 90.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 90.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 90.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Depression NINE Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 22, 2014 - 3:50am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 05:50:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 03:04:44 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 22, 2014 - 3:48am
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.4, -92.6 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 1A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 22, 2014 - 3:48am
Issued at 100 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220548 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 100 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 92.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 22, 2014 - 3:29am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220529
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nine, located over the Bay of Campeche.

A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system
could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by tonight, and
development after that time is not likely. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 1

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 22, 2014 - 1:01am
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220301 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 Satellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection associated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and northern portions of the circulation during the past few hours. Thus the low is being designated as a tropical depression. Earlier aircraft data supported winds around 30 kt. The depression is over warm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the system is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected to to become a overnight or early Wednesday. The cyclone should weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner. The depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the cyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is likely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF shows the tropical cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the depression a separate system. For now, the NHC forecast shows a weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.4N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 22, 2014 - 12:55am
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 220255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 22 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) 2(17) 1(18) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 1

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 22, 2014 - 12:54am
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 220254 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 92.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 21, 2014 - 3:00am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited.
This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across
the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast
to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while
it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late
Wednesday and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 20, 2014 - 3:15am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 7:09pm

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 20:40:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 30

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 6:39pm
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192039 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the system has completed its transformation into an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next 24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart