NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 17, 2016 - 1:20am
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 7:07pm

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 20:33:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 21:03:47 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 6:32pm
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152032 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 Geostationary and low-level microwave satellite images show the cloud pattern becoming elongated and taking on a comma, i.e. frontal, shape. Short-term model forecasts show significant thermal advection in the circulation, and this is also suggested by surface data. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that the system was losing its inner-core wind maximum, with the strongest winds well-removed to the northeast of the center. Therefore Alex has made the transition to an extratropical cyclone, and this will be the last advisory. Maximum winds are estimated to be just below hurricane strength, and the post-tropical cyclone could re-intensify slightly in the short term due to baroclinic energy sources. Within 48 hours, the global models generally agree on the system merging with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The cyclone has accelerated greatly during the day and is now moving slightly west of due north, or 350/35. The dynamical guidance shows the system rotating counterclockwise around a large gyre over the north Atlantic during the next day or so. This is also shown in the official forecast, which is based mainly on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 43.0N 27.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 29.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z 56.3N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 56.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX (AT1/AL012016)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 6:32pm
...ALEX BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Jan 15 the center of ALEX was located near 43.0, -27.8 with movement N at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Public Advisory Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 6:32pm
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 ...ALEX BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 27.8W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Alex has lost its tropical characteristics. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 27.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 40 mph (65 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and west with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with another extratropical cyclone by Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 485 miles (780 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 6:32pm
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 152032 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONTA DELGADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 6:31pm
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152031 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 27.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......300NE 120SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......420NE 420SE 240SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 540SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 27.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 27.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.2N 29.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...300NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 56.3N 36.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 56.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 34 KT...420NE 180SE 60SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 27.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 1:20pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141106
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
610 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Alex, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Alex are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Alex are
issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Hurricane ALEX Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 3:58am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 05:58:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 03:03:46 GMT

Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 3:57am
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Jan 15 the center of ALEX was located near 35.5, -27.3 with movement N at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 6A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 3:57am
Issued at 200 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150557 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 200 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 27.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 27.3 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35 km/h). A northward motion and a faster forward speed are expected this morning and afternoon, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so. However, Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by tonight while it moves over colder water. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Wind gusts to tropical storm force have been reported over portions the eastern and central Azores during the past few hours. A wind gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) has been reported at the Santa Maria Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread across all of the eastern and central Azores this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores later this morning. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through today, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 6

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 12:43am
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150243 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective structure of Alex has decayed during the past 6 hours, with the eyewall breaking open and the banding dissipating in the southeastern semicircle. Based on this, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt. The hurricane is moving over colder sea surface temperatures of less than 20C. However, the cyclone should begin extratropical transition in the next few hours, and the global models suggest there will be enough baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds through and after the transition despite the cold water. Based on this and input from the Ocean Prediction Center, the new intensity forecast shows little change in strength until Alex is absorbed by a large extratropical low in about 72 hours. The initial motion is 010/19. There are no changes to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory and only minor tweaks to the forecast track. Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave mid-tropospheric trough that is rotating around the developing large baroclinic low to its west and northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models remain in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the official forecast is near the model consensus. Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it undergoes extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 34.7N 27.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 38.4N 27.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 45.0N 29.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1200Z 52.7N 32.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z 59.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Hurricane ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 12:42am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 150242 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) PONTA DELGADA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 6

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 15, 2016 - 12:42am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150242 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE EASTERN AZORES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 27.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 27.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 27.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.4N 27.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.0N 29.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 180SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 480SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 59.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...240NE 180SE 0SW 240NW. 34 KT...420NE 300SE 180SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 27.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 14, 2016 - 9:07am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141106
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
610 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Alex, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Alex are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Alex are
issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Subtropical Storm ALEX Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 14, 2016 - 1:09am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 02:46:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 03:04:49 GMT

Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 2

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 14, 2016 - 12:45am
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140244 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 Evening satellite imagery indicates that Alex continues to generate a complex of curved convective bands, and an eye has been trying to form inside the innermost band. Satellite intensity estimates are 55-65 kt from TAFB and 55 kt from SAB. In addition, recent ASCAT-B data showed winds of 50 kt about 30 n mi southeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, and this could be a little conservative. Even though Alex has strengthened, the system is still underneath an upper-level trough, and it has not yet developed the upper-level outflow characteristic of a tropical cyclone. Alex has continued to turn toward the left and the initial motion is now 035/15. The cyclone is expected to turn northward during the next 12-24 hours due to the influence of a large extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic. Alex is expected to turn more northwestward on the northeast side of this low after 48 hours, with this motion continuing until the two system merge between 72-96 hours. The new forecast track is very similar to the previous track, and it calls for Alex to pass near or over the Azores in about 36 hours. The subtropical storm is expected to move over colder sea surface temperatures during the next day or so, and little change in strength is expected during that time. After that, the cyclone should gradually intensify during and after extratropical transition, which should be complete at about the time the cyclone passes near or through the Azores. The new intensity forecast is stronger than the previous forecast and shows Alex as a storm-force cyclone for the next 72 hours. Gale and storm force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, are likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late Thursday or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.7N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 30.6N 28.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 34.2N 27.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 39.3N 27.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0000Z 45.7N 29.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0000Z 58.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Subtropical Storm ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 14, 2016 - 12:45am
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 140244 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0300 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Summary for Subtropical Storm ALEX (AT1/AL012016)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 14, 2016 - 12:44am
...ALEX STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Jan 13 the center of ALEX was located near 28.7, -30.0 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Subtropical Storm ALEX Public Advisory Number 2

NOAA National Hurricane Center - January 14, 2016 - 12:44am
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140244 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 ...ALEX STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 30.0W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Alex. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 30.0 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed are expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex is expected to move near or over the Azores late Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight and Thursday. Alex is expected to become an extratropical low with storm-force winds as it approaches the Azores Thursday night and Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale force winds are expected to begin over portions of Azores by late Thursday or early Friday. Storm force winds are possible over portions of the Azores on Friday. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven