NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 8 hours 31 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited.
This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across
the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast
to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while
it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late
Wednesday and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Brown

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 8 hours 31 min ago
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 21 Oct 2014 06:05:08 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 20, 2014 - 3:15am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200515
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 7:09pm

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 20:40:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 30

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 6:39pm
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192039 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the system has completed its transformation into an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next 24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 6:38pm
...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 19 the center of GONZALO was located near 51.6, -41.8 with movement ENE at 52 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Public Advisory Number 30

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 6:38pm
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 ...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 30

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 6:38pm
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192038 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N 41.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 45 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 160SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 270SE 180SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 540SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.6N 41.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 300SE 270SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 320SE 360SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 320SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 180SE 420SW 380NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 360SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 540SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.6N 41.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GONZALO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 6:38pm
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 192038 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane GONZALO Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 3:42am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 05:42:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 03:05:46 GMT

Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 3:41am
...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Oct 19 the center of GONZALO was located near 44.2, -55.0 with movement NE at 48 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 27A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 3:41am
Issued at 200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190540 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 200 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 ...HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CAPE RACE THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.2N 55.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 48 MPH...78 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. GONZALO HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. THE LARGEST EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 3:40am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of this week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of the
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over relatively
warm waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 27

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 12:50am
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190250 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45 nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii have been increased accordingly. Gonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model guidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were made to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a deep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical ridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Recent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo should continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours, which should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical cyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result in Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical extratropical cyclone. Gradual weakening is forecast after the transition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model through 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 42.3N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1200Z 54.0N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 57.0N 8.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 12:50am
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 190249 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 90 10(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 45 52(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 2 49(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 27

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 19, 2014 - 12:44am
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190244 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0300 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 57.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 34 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 100SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 160SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 250SE 170SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 400SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 57.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 260SE 190SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 160SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 270SE 200SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 320SE 320SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N 8.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 420SE 420SW 480NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane GONZALO Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 18, 2014 - 4:00am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 06:00:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 03:05:46 GMT

Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 23A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 18, 2014 - 3:58am
Issued at 200 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180558 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 200 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 ...GONZALO STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 63.9W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH...95 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 82 MPH...132 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 87 MPH...139 KM/H...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVID'S BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 18, 2014 - 3:03am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 18, 2014 - 2:54am
...GONZALO STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Oct 18 the center of GONZALO was located near 33.5, -63.9 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.