NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Tropical Storm FRED Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 4 hours 20 min ago

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 05:55:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 03:07:50 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 4 hours 21 min ago
...FRED WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 1 the center of FRED was located near 17.8, -25.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 9A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 4 hours 21 min ago
Issued at 200 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010553 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 200 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 ...FRED WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 25.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia in the Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 25.7 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will continue to move away from the northwestern Cape Verde Islands today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the northwestern Cape Verde Islands within the warning area for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 4 hours 53 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010521
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Fred, located just north of the
northwestern Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
favorable for gradual development of this system through the weekend
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 7 hours 34 min ago
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010240 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance. Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical storm. The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60 kt. As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear, progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated here. The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the initial motion is 310/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Fred is forecast to build gradually westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. A more westward track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower cyclone steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. This is also very similar to the previous NHC track forecast. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.9N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 7 hours 36 min ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 010238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 9

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 7 hours 37 min ago
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAO VICENTE, SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO VICENTE...SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 25.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 25.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 25.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 25.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane FRED Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2015 - 3:55am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 05:55:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 02:50:50 GMT

Summary for Hurricane FRED (AT1/AL062015)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2015 - 3:54am
...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 15.3, -22.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane FRED Public Advisory Number 5A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2015 - 3:54am
Issued at 200 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 310554 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 200 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 22.5W ABOUT 60 MI...110 KM SSE OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 22.5 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Fred will move through the Cape Verde Islands this afternoon and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today as Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the Cape Verde Islands in a few hours, with hurricane conditions by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. These rains could produce life- threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2015 - 3:17am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, which is nearing the easternmost Cape Verde Islands.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane FRED Forecast Discussion Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2015 - 12:40am
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310240 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 Fred has been maintaining strong convection in its CDO, and microwave data show a well-defined inner core. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not increased over the past several hours, however. The current intensity estimate is 60 kt, which is slightly above the most recent ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the tropical cyclone. The system should remain over marginally warm sea surface temperatures with moderate vertical shear for the next day or so, and sounding data from Sal in the Cape Verde Islands indicate that the Saharan Air Layer is not very prominent ahead of Fred. Given these conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to strengthen into a hurricane overnight. By 36 hours, vertical shear is forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should be underway by that time. Late in the forecast period, model guidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with the shear remaining strong. This should result in the cyclone degenerating to a depression by the end of the period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is the same as the previous one. Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery show that Fred continues on its northwestward trek. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous package. For the next few days, a weakening mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic should result in the tropical cyclone continuing northwestward with decreasing forward speed. Late in the forecast period, the ridge builds westward a bit and this, along with the weakening cyclone responding more to the lower-level flow, is likely to result in a turn to the left with time. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions and lies on the southern side of the guidance suite. This is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 15.3N 22.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 16.2N 23.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.5N 25.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.8N 27.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 19.6N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 20.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2015 - 12:40am
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 310240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane FRED Forecast Advisory Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 31, 2015 - 12:37am
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 310237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE VERDE ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 22.4W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 22.4W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 21.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.2N 23.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 25.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.8N 27.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 29.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.8N 32.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 22.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 30, 2015 - 3:49am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300549
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six, located a few hundred miles east-southeast
of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is
moving quickly west-northwestward across the Florida Straits this
morning. Although there are no signs of redevelopment at this time,
upper-level winds could become marginally favorable for tropical
cyclone formation over the next day or so. Regardless of this
system's prospects for regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty
winds are expected to spread across portions of South Florida and
the Florida Keys today. This activity should spread northwestward
and then northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late today
and on Monday. Additional information on this system can be found in
marine forecasts and local forecast products issued by the National
Weather Service and the meteorological service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 30, 2015 - 3:49am
Issued at 130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300549 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 The well-defined low pressure system located to the west of Conakry, Guinea, has acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and two earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes indicating at least 30 kt in the southern semicircle. The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. The depression is located south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward across northwestern Africa and into the eastern Atlantic for several hundred miles. However, a weakness is located in a portion of the ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands due to a pronounced mid-latitude trough noted in water vapor imagery digging east-southeastward. This should allow the cyclone to move northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands through 48 hours. After that time, the NHC model guidance is in fair agreement on the aforementioned trough lifting out, allowing the ridge to build back in, which is expected to force the cyclone on a more westward track. The NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models TVCA and GFEX. The depression is embedded within favorable environmental and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a moist mid-troposphere, and sea-surface temperatures greater than 28 deg C, which should allow for steady strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. The main inhibiting factor is the decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone after 24-36 hours. However, the possibility still exists for the system to reach hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape Verde Islands in 36-48 hours. For this reason, the Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cape Verdes. The official intensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0530Z 12.1N 18.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 12.7N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 21.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 15.3N 23.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 16.6N 24.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 18.3N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 18.9N 32.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 19.3N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression SIX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 30, 2015 - 3:40am
Issued at 0530 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 300540 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0530 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 0530Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression SIX Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 30, 2015 - 3:34am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 05:34:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 05:33:44 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression SIX (AT1/AL062015)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 30, 2015 - 3:33am
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 1:30 AM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of SIX was located near 12.1, -18.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory Number 1

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 30, 2015 - 3:33am
Issued at 130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300533 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 130 AM AST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 18.4W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cape Verde Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 130 AM AST (0530 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 18.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track the depression is expected to move through the Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Monday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches on Monday. These rains could produce flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart