NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 3 hours 34 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 3 hours 34 min ago
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 31 Oct 2014 06:05:47 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 30, 2014 - 3:33am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just to the
northeast of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the Leeward
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 29, 2014 - 3:38am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290538
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds
are currently marginally conducive, and some slow development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
moving inland over Belize while it produces disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Now that the low is moving inland, significant
re-development is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 28, 2014 - 3:39am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280539
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hanna, located inland over northern Nicaragua.

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
from the Lesser Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for
several hundred miles. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves northwestward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days since upper-
level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive. By the
weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development. Regardless of development, this system will produce
brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Hanna are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Hanna are
issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Remnants of HANNA Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 28, 2014 - 1:06am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Oct 2014 02:33:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Oct 2014 03:02:44 GMT

Remnants of HANNA Forecast Discussion Number 8

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 28, 2014 - 12:33am
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280233 TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 The circulation of Hanna no longer appears to be well defined based on satellite imagery and surface observations. Since the cyclone center has dissipated, this will be the final advisory on the remnants of Hanna. While cloud top temperatures have warmed markedly near the earlier estimated center location, heavy rainfall remains a significant threat. The remnants of Hanna could produce 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm) of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches (230 mm), across Honduras and northern Nicaragua. These rains could produce flash flooding and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

Summary for Remnants of HANNA (AT4/AL092014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 28, 2014 - 12:32am
...HANNA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 the center of HANNA was located near 14.5, -84.5 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Remnants of HANNA Public Advisory Number 8

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 28, 2014 - 12:32am
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 ...HANNA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 84.5W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF HANNA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THE REMNANTS OF HANNA WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA HONDURAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 9 INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Remnants of HANNA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 28, 2014 - 12:32am
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 280232 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Remnants of HANNA Forecast Advisory Number 8

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 28, 2014 - 12:31am
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 280231 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 84.5W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 84.5W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 84.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 84.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 27, 2014 - 3:00am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea near Cabo Gracias
a Dios, Nicaragua. Although showers and thunderstorms associated
with this system have increased and become more concentrated during
the past 12 hours, surface pressures are not falling. The low is
expected to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land later
today, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 26, 2014 - 3:28am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260528
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and
a cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, should be slow to occur
while the disturbance drifts southward and then westward over the
next few days close to the coast of Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 25, 2014 - 3:09am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250509
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. This
system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the trough
meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 24, 2014 - 3:03am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240503
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. The system is
expected to move eastward across northern Belize this morning and
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by this afternoon, and it has a
small chance of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a
cold front in two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 3:00am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Nine which has degenerated into a remnant low
over the Yucatan peninsula.

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
non-tropical low pressure area is developing over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The low is expected to move east-northeastward,
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is not
expected to due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to produce heavy rainfall and
locally gusty winds over western Cuba, the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 1:08am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 02:37:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 03:04:43 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:36am
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230236 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The system has not produced a significant area of organized deep convection since late this morning and it is therefore being declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration. The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and the multi-model consensus. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to this system. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 18.9N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE (AT4/AL092014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:36am
...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 18.9, -90.9 with movement ESE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Public Advisory Number 5

NOAA National Hurricane Center - October 23, 2014 - 12:36am
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 90.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH ...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN