NOAA National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center - Atla

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 9 hours 51 min ago

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 05:37:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Aug 2014 03:05:47 GMT

Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 9 hours 52 min ago
...CRISTOBAL HESITATES BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 30.4, -72.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 14A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 9 hours 52 min ago
Issued at 200 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270536 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 ...CRISTOBAL HESITATES BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 72.0W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS FORECAST TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H LATER THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 10 hours 1 min ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270527
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

A trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is
producing minimal shower activity. This system is expected to move
west-southwestward over southern Texas and northern Mexico in a day
or two with little or no development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15
mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 14

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 12 hours 53 min ago
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270234 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Cristobal earlier this evening, and found that the hurricane had strengthened a bit. Based on SFMR-observed surface winds and dropsonde data from the aircraft, the intensity was increased to 70 kt. Since the time of the aircraft mission, the convective cloud tops have warmed somewhat -- but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Cristobal will remain modest through about 36 hours, but increase substantially thereafter. Therefore the hurricane has a window of opportunity for strengthening that should last through tomorrow night. The official wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus. Later in the forecast period, as Cristobal nears and undergoes extratropical transition, strong baroclinic forcing should result in a powerful post-tropical storm with hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week. Aircraft fixes indicate a northward motion of about 360/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. Over the next day or two, Cristobal should move through a weakness between 2 subtropical anticyclones. Thereafter, the cyclone should turn northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough moving off of the northeastern United States, and accelerate in the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest track model guidance has shifted a bit to the left, and the official forecast remains near the right side of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 30.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 32.0N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 34.3N 69.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 36.6N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 39.5N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 47.5N 45.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 62.0N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 12 hours 54 min ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 270234 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 1(58) X(58) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 14

NOAA National Hurricane Center - 12 hours 54 min ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270233 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 71.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 71.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 32.0N 71.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.3N 69.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.6N 66.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 47.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 200SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 62.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 71.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 26, 2014 - 3:39am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 05:39:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 03:05:47 GMT

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 10A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 26, 2014 - 3:38am
Issued at 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260538 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 72.0W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 26, 2014 - 3:29am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260529
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Cristobal, located a couple of hundred miles
north of the southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 10

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 26, 2014 - 12:43am
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260243 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 Based on a blend of SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind data collected by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft a little earlier this evening, Cristobal was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Similar to Hurricane Bertha earlier this year in roughly the same location, this system's cloud pattern does not resemble that of a hurricane, with little or no evidence of banding on satellite images. Some additional strengthening is expected, however, since the SHIPS guidance shows a decrease in vertical shear during the next few days, and an increase in upper-level divergence is indicated by the global models. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is close to the latest LGEM guidance. The center fixes by the NOAA aircraft indicated an eastward wobble several hours ago, but recent satellite imagery hints that a slow north-northeastward motion has resumed. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 030/2 kt. In spite of the erratic motion and eastward shift of the center, the track model guidance remains in good agreement that Cristobal will move along a track similar to the previous NHC forecast. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to move through a weakness between two mid-level high pressure areas. Thereafter, as Cristobal begins to enter the mid-latitude westerlies and a shortwave trough moves off the northeast United States coastline, the tropical cyclone should accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic. The current official forecast is not much different from the previous one, and close to the GFS ensemble mean solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 25.1N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.9N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.3N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 31.8N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 34.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 39.0N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 45.0N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 26, 2014 - 12:42am
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 260242 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 12(36) X(36) X(36) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 10

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 26, 2014 - 12:40am
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 260240 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 71.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 180SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 71.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.9N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.3N 70.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.8N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 100SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 45.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 51.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 71.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 25, 2014 - 11:06pm
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 25.5, -72.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Graphics

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 25, 2014 - 3:53am

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 05:53:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 03:05:47 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 25, 2014 - 3:53am
...CRISTOBAL MEANDERING NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.... As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 24.5, -72.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 6A

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 25, 2014 - 3:53am
Issued at 200 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250552 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MEANDERING NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 72.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CRISTOBAL HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THIS MORNING. A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES... 195 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 25, 2014 - 3:22am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250522
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 6

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 25, 2014 - 12:33am
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250233 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Cristobal is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. The deep convection has a ragged appearance, with little or no banding features evident, and this convection is mainly occurring well to the south of the estimated center location. After adjusting for rain inflation, SFMR winds from aircraft observations a few hours ago, indicated that the intensity is no more than 40 kt. Also, the fixes from the Air Force and NOAA planes, which were flying at altitudes of about 1000 and 8000 feet respectively, indicated a southward tilt of the center with height. This is consistent with some northerly shear over the storm as suggested by water vapor imagery. Given the currently disorganized state of Cristobal, not much intensification seems likely for the next 12 hours or so. Afterwards, the global models are predicting a little more favorable upper-tropospheric environment with increasingly diffluent flow over the tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance, and only a little above the model consensus. By 120 hours, the global models depict the cyclone embedded within a baroclinic zone, so extratropical transition should have occurred by that time. The motion has been rather erratic over the past several hours, but my best estimate is about 350/4 kt. Cristobal is currently situated near a col between 2 anticyclones in the mid-level flow, one over the United States, and one over the central subtropical Atlantic. The dynamical models indicate that, within a couple of days, the steering of the tropical cyclone will become dominated by flow on the northwest side of the Atlantic anticyclone and on the southern side of a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, the motion is expected to gradually bend to the right with some acceleration over the next several days. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one after 48 hours, but not as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 24.8N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 25.4N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 26.4N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 27.8N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.8N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 37.5N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 44.0N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

NOAA National Hurricane Center - August 25, 2014 - 12:32am
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 250231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 17(34) X(34) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH